The stage is set for climate change to feature prominently in the upcoming presidential election. The science has never been clearer. The public is more concerned than they’ve been in over a decade. Young people are leading a new wave of activism that is gathering pace, including in the U.S.  And a newly emboldened progressive wing of the Democratic party is calling for a Green New Deal of far-reaching climate, industrial, social welfare and employment policies.

 

Against this backdrop, the expectations and opportunities for climate leadership are greater than ever before. Among the growing pool of Democratic candidates, all accept the science and believe climate change is a threat that demands a response. However, many voters now expect candidates to demonstrate a much higher level of commitment to ambitious and urgent action on climate.

 

So how do we measure climate leadership? It’s easy to do quick tests on pledges and positions. But how do the candidates really stack up against one another? This is the question Climate Advisers’ Democratic Candidates Climate Race seeks to answer by looking at four key criteria:

 

• To what extent is the candidate building a mandate for climate action?
• Is the candidate putting forward detailed policies?
• What does the candidate’s past leadership look like?
• Has the candidate signed the No Fossil Fuel Money Pledge?

 

Based on these criteria, here are the current standings (25 July 2019):

 

	Candidate	Overall	Mandate Building	Proposed Policy	Past Policy	Fossil Fuel Pledge
	Jay Inslee	T1	2	T1	6	Y
	Bernie Sanders	T1	1	10	5	Y
	Beto O’Rourke	3	3	T1	13	Y
	Kirsten Gillibrand	4	T11	T5	2	Y
	Elizabeth Warren	5	T6	T5	7	Y
	Joe Biden	6	T4	T1	T15	Y
	Michael Bennet	7	T15	T1	10	Y
	Marianne Williamson	T8	T8	T5	T15	Y
	Kamala Harris	T8	T4	T14	1	Y
	Amy Klobuchar	10	T8	T11	4	Y
	John Delaney	11	T11	9	T8	N
	Pete Buttigieg	12	3	T11	T15	Y
	Cory Booker	13	T17	T14	3	Y
	John Hickenlooper	14	T15	T5	T15	N
	Tulsi Gabbard	15	T17	T14	T8	Y
	Bill de Blasio	16	T8	T14	14	Y
	Tim Ryan	17	T17	T14	T11	Y
	Andrew Yang	18	T17	T11	T15	Y
	Julian Castro	19	T11	T14	T15	Y
	Steve Bullock	20	T11	T14	T15	N

COMPARE AGAINST PAST STANDINGS

Observations after Third Update

• Inslee remains at the top, tied with Sanders, as he champions an aspirational set of climate policies more extensive than any other candidate and continues to make climate change the central issue of his campaign
• Warren moves from 12th to 5th following the release of her new climate plan and an increase in mandate building.
• Biden has moved from 23rd to sixth place following the release of his new climate plan; he is tied for first in proposed policies, and has drastically improved his mandate building.
• Harris sits in eighth, tied with Williamson, after signing the No Fossil Fuel Money pledge and increasing her mandate building. She remains undisputed first place for past policy.
• Booker sinks lower in the rankings. He has an outstanding voting record and policy history on environmental issues, but lacks discussion and proposal of climate policy on his social media or website. He continues to lurk at the back of the group.
• 17 out of 20 candidates that have qualified for the second DNC debate have signed the No Fossil Fuel Money Pledge. Bullock, Delaney, and Hickenlooper are the last candidates withholding signatures.

Top Polling Candidates

If only looking at the top five polling candidates, this is what the Climate Race would look like. We use aggregate polling data from several polls to define ‘top polling’.

	Candidate	Main Climate Race	Polls	Mandate Building	Proposed Policy	Past Policy	Fossil Fuel Pledge
	Bernie Sanders	T1	3	1	3	2	Y
	Elizabeth Warren	5	2	4	2	3	Y
	Joe Biden	6	1	3	1	T4	Y
	Kamala Harris	T8	4	2	5	1	Y
	Pete Buttigieg	12	5	5	4	T4	Y

Observations after Third Update for Top Polling Candidates:

• Of the top polling candidates, Biden has the best proposed climate policy, though he falls behind Sanders and Warren in overall ranking.
• Sanders is in 10^th overall for proposed policy, or 11^th worst in the category, and has the third best of the top polling candidates.
• Harris has far surpassed Sanders in Twitter hits on climate change, but lacks a defined plan for climate change on her site.

The race is on

As the primary continues to unfold, there’s time for candidates to improve their position in the race. With that in mind, the race is split into a series of legs that will finish before key milestones on the journey to the convention, such as the first televised debate, the Iowa Caucus and Super Tuesday. If a candidate finishes poorly, she or he has the chance to improve in the next leg.

 

Delve deeper

Standings

Methodology

Data

 

Past Standings 

Initial Standings – 17 May 2019

First Update – 4 June 2019

Second Update– 24 June 2019

 

Candidates’ Rankings Will be Updated Prior to Each of the Following Milestones: 

September 2019 TBD- Third DNC Debate

October 2019 TBD- Fourth DNC Debate

November 2019  TBD- Fifth DNC Debate

December 2019 TBD- Sixth DNC Debate

3 February 2020- Iowa caucuses

11 February 2020 – New Hampshire primary

3 March 2020 – Super Tuesday

 

Please direct inquiries to Ben Simonds, Director of Communications, simonds@climateadvisers.com